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Tampa Bay Lightning logoTBL
vs
OTTOttawa Senators logo
2025–26 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay Lightning48-25-679+5752.952.253.521.2%82.5%
Ottawa Senators logoOttawa Senators42-27-1079+2653.454.155.223.5%75.0%

Betting Considerations

Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay Lightning(Away)
Lost 3 consecutive games
23-12-5 on the road this season
Averaging 2.8 goals/game last 5 (-22% vs season avg)
On 4-game road trip
1-2 vs Ottawa Senators this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Ottawa Senators
1/11 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 21.2% average
Missing Brandon Hagel (Out) — 0.71 PPG
Ottawa Senators logoOttawa Senators(Home)
Won 3 consecutive games
22-12-6 at home this season
Averaging 4.4 goals/game last 5 (+29% vs season avg)
Allowing 2.2 goals/game last 5 (-28% vs season avg)
On 6-game homestand
2-1 vs Tampa Bay Lightning this season
5/6 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 23.5% average

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy, projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay Lightning with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisA. Vasilevskiy85%Clear #1 (80% start rate), 1 consecutive start56.9110.70.840
James Reimer, projected starting goalie for Ottawa Senators with 50% confidence based on recent rotation analysisJ. Reimer50%Game tomorrow — starter may rest tonight after 5 consecutive starts12.8830.89.784

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Apr 9Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal CanadiensAwayL 1–2
Apr 7Ottawa Senators logoOttawa SenatorsAwayL 2–6
Apr 6Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayL 2–4
Apr 4Boston Bruins logoBoston BruinsHomeW 3–1
Apr 2Pittsburgh Penguins logoPittsburgh PenguinsHomeW 6–3
Mar 31Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal CanadiensHomeL 1–4
Mar 29Nashville Predators logoNashville PredatorsHomeW 3–2
Mar 28Ottawa Senators logoOttawa SenatorsHomeW 4–2
Mar 26Seattle Kraken logoSeattle KrakenHomeL 3–4 (OT)
Mar 24Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildHomeW 6–3