NHL Playoff Predictions

How Are These Predictions Calculated?

Every probability on this page comes from simulating the rest of the NHL season and playoffs 100,000 times. Each simulation plays out every remaining game, determines who makes the playoffs, and runs a full playoff bracket through the Stanley Cup Finals. The percentages you see are simply how often each outcome happened across all 100,000 simulations.

Step 1: Team Strength (Elo Ratings)

Each team has an Elo rating that measures how strong they are right now. Elo is a well-known rating system (used in chess, soccer, and other sports) where teams gain points for winning and lose points for losing.

• Every team starts at 1500. Higher is better.
• Winning in regulation is worth more than winning in overtime or a shootout.
• Beating a strong team earns more points than beating a weak one.
• Ratings are calculated from 2+ seasons of game results, so they reflect long-term form, not just the current standings.
• At the start of each new season, ratings are pulled partway back toward 1500 to account for roster changes.

Step 2: Goalie Adjustment

Goaltending matters. Each team's starting goalie (the one with the most playing time this season) is evaluated using Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), which measures how many more (or fewer) goals the goalie stops compared to what an average goalie would stop facing the same shots. A small bonus or penalty is applied to each game's win probability based on the difference in goalie quality between the two teams.

Step 3: Simulating Each Game

For every remaining regular-season game, the simulator calculates a win probability using the two teams' Elo ratings, home-ice advantage, and the goalie adjustment. Then it flips a weighted coin to decide the winner.

• About 28% of simulated games go to overtime (matching the real NHL rate).
• OT games are split roughly 50/50 between overtime and shootout wins.
• The losing team in OT/SO gets 1 point, just like real NHL standings.

Step 4: Playoff Bracket

Once the regular season is simulated, the playoff bracket is built using the real NHL format:

• Top 3 teams in each division qualify, plus 2 wild cards per conference.
• Tiebreakers use points, then regulation + OT wins (ROW), then total wins.
• Each playoff series is best-of-7 with home-ice advantage (2-2-1-1-1 format).
• Game outcomes use the same Elo + goalie model, with home-ice advantage for the higher seed.

Step 5: Draft Lottery

Teams that miss the playoffs are entered into the draft lottery using the real NHL odds (the worst team has a 25.5% chance of the #1 pick, the second-worst has 13.5%, and so on). The 1st Pick column shows how often each team won the lottery across all simulations.

Column Definitions

Elo

The team's current Elo rating. The league average is 1500. A top contender is typically 1550+, and a bottom team is around 1440-1470.

Proj. Pts

The average number of standings points the team finishes with across all 100,000 simulations. This is the best estimate of where the team will end up in the final standings.

WC1 / WC2

Probability of finishing as the 1st or 2nd Wild Card in their conference. Wild cards are the two best teams in a conference that didn't finish in the top 3 of their division.

Win Div

Probability of finishing with the most points in their division.