October 17, 2026 · Britton Green

Why the Maple Leafs Are Limiting Gavin McKenna's Ice Time

Toronto's No. 1 overall pick has dressed every game but sits ninth among Leafs forwards in ice time. The 5-on-5 numbers explain why, and what he has to fix.

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Gavin McKenna has dressed for all eight of the Toronto Maple Leafs' games this season. He has not been a healthy scratch. But the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft has spent less time on the ice than most of Toronto's regular forwards, and in recent games his role has looked more like a depth winger's than a franchise prospect's.

That is the sense in which McKenna has been benched: shorter shifts and fewer of them, especially late in close games. The reasons show up clearly in the numbers, and so does the path back.

Where McKenna Sits in the Pecking Order

McKenna averages 13:57 of time on ice per game. Eight Leafs forwards play more:

Behind him are Teddy Blueger (11:46), Brandon Duhaime (11:08), Bo Groulx (7:59 in five games) and Zack MacEwen (5:26 in two).

Here is the odd part. McKenna has outscored several of the players getting more ice. He has two goals, three assists and five points, with 13 shots. Paul has four points, Sissons has two, and Duhaime and Blueger have none. If the coaching staff were handing out minutes by the scoresheet, McKenna would be higher on that list.

So production is not what's holding him back.

The 5-on-5 Problem

The number that explains his usage is what happens when he's on the ice at even strength. With McKenna on at 5-on-5, Toronto has scored five goals and allowed 11. That minus-six is the worst goal differential of any Leafs forward. His on-ice expected goals share is 37.4%.

For context, the team as a whole sits at a 47.5% xGF share at 5-on-5. Several of the forwards ahead of him in the minutes list are well above that:

  • Matthews: 61.1%
  • Cowan: 59.9%
  • Marchenko: 57.3%
  • Roslovic: 56.5%
  • Sissons: 55%

Among Leafs forwards, only Groulx (37.2%, in five games at under eight minutes a night) is lower. Tavares (38.6%) is close, though he carries a long track record, including 71 points in 82 games last season.

The expected-goals number matters more than the goals number because it strips out goaltending and puck luck. Toronto's goaltending has been uneven, with Anthony Stolarz at an .875 save percentage in three games and Sergei Bobrovsky at .896 in five, so some of those 11 goals against can be put on the crease. But a 37.4% expected share says the chances themselves have been tilted the wrong way when McKenna is out there. That's a process problem, and coaches act on process.

Eight games is a small sample, and one bad shift can swing an on-ice number for a player with this few minutes. Still, it's the only sample the coaching staff has, and they are reacting to it.

Close Games Shorten the Bench

The second reason is the type of games Toronto has played. Seven of the eight were decided by one goal, and three went past regulation:

The only comfortable result was a 6-3 win at Colorado.

When a game is tied or within a goal in the third period, coaches lean on the players they trust to defend a lead or hold a tie. A rookie whose line is losing the chance battle is the first one shortened. Overtime is even more selective, with only a handful of forwards getting 3-on-3 shifts. Play three overtimes in a week-and-a-half and a young winger's nightly total is going to drop.

Toronto also dressed 11 forwards and seven defensemen against Colorado and Utah. In that setup someone has to double-shift, and those extra shifts tend to go to the top of the lineup rather than to an 18-year-old still learning the league.

A Team That Can't Afford to Experiment

The broader context makes this more understandable. The Leafs are 3-3-2 with 8 points, 19th in the standings and sixth in the Atlantic. They're 22nd in our power rankings. They score 3.5 goals per game and allow 3.5. Their 5-on-5 shot attempt share is 47.3%.

A team that is giving up three and a half goals a night is going to tighten its structure, and the blue line is part of the reason. Chris Tanev is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, expected back around Oct. 22, and Toronto has used Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai to fill in. With a thinner defense, the staff wants forwards who help in their own end. That puts more weight on the exact area where McKenna's numbers are weakest.

Who McKenna Is

It's worth remembering what kind of player Toronto drafted. McKenna is 18 and entered the season with zero NHL games. Last season he had 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 35 games at Penn State, and 14 points in seven games for Canada at the World Juniors. He is an offense-first playmaker making the jump from college hockey to an NHL schedule.

The offensive side has translated. Five points in eight games as an 18-year-old is a real start. The adjustment for a player like this is almost always on the defensive side: positioning without the puck, reading NHL forechecks, and managing the puck in his own zone. The box score doesn't show which of those the coaches are flagging on video, but the 37.4% xGF share says something in that group is costing him.

What He Needs to Do to Earn It Back

Win his even-strength minutes. The clearest target is the team average. If McKenna's on-ice xGF share climbs from 37.4% toward the high 40s, he stops being the line the coaches have to protect. He doesn't need to match Matthews. He needs to stop being the outlier.

Follow Cowan's path. Cowan is the best internal comparison. He played 66 games last season at 14:43 a night with 29 points, and this year he's up to 15:09 with six points and a 59.9% xGF share. His goals for and against at 5-on-5 are even at 10-10. That's the profile that earns trust: modest scoring, but the puck goes the right way when he's out there.

Keep shooting. McKenna has 13 shots in eight games. Roslovic has 25 in the same span, Marchenko 20. More shot volume means more time in the offensive zone, which is the simplest way for a skilled forward to fix his defensive numbers.

Take the opening when it comes. Tavares is listed day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, expected back Saturday. Max Domi is out until late November with a back injury. Any missed game by a top-nine forward frees up minutes, and the staff will hand them to whoever has earned them. On the other side, Miles Wood (expected back around Oct. 22) and Dakota Joshua (around Oct. 24) will return to compete for bottom-six spots, so the window to make his case before the lineup fills back up is short.

My Read

I don't see this as punishment and the drama around him being "benched" is exactly that: drama. A 13:57 average for an 18-year-old on a team scrambling for points is a managed role, and the coaching staff has kept him in the lineup every night. A real benching would mean the press box, and that hasn't happened.

The risk is in the other direction. McKenna was drafted first overall to drive offense, and he can't learn the defensive side of the NHL game from the bench. If his 5-on-5 numbers are still stuck below 40% after 20 games, the conversation changes. Eight games in, the right approach is the one Toronto seems to be taking: keep him in, protect him late in close games, and give him more as he earns it.

In simple terms: He needs to be a better 200-foot player.

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