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Tampa Bay Lightning logoTBL
vs
BUFBuffalo Sabres logo
2025–26 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay Lightning48-25-679+5752.952.253.521.2%82.5%
Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo Sabres49-23-880+3948.749.249.319.9%81.7%

Betting Considerations

Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay Lightning(Away)
Lost 3 consecutive games
23-12-5 on the road this season
Averaging 2.8 goals/game last 5 (-22% vs season avg)
On 4-game road trip
1-3 vs Buffalo Sabres this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Buffalo Sabres
1/11 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 21.2% average
Missing Brandon Hagel (Out) — 0.71 PPG
Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo Sabres(Home)
Won 3 consecutive games
26-10-4 at home this season
3-0-1 vs Tampa Bay Lightning this season
0/10 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 19.9% average
Missing Alex Lyon (Out) — 36 GP starter

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy, projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay Lightning with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisA. Vasilevskiy85%Clear #1 (80% start rate), 1 consecutive start56.9110.70.840
Colten Ellis, projected starting goalie for Buffalo Sabres with 48% confidence based on recent rotation analysisC. Ellis48%Tandem split (13% start rate), 1 consecutive15.9040.82.827

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Apr 9Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal CanadiensAwayL 1–2
Apr 7Ottawa Senators logoOttawa SenatorsAwayL 2–6
Apr 6Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayL 2–4
Apr 4Boston Bruins logoBoston BruinsHomeW 3–1
Apr 2Pittsburgh Penguins logoPittsburgh PenguinsHomeW 6–3
Mar 31Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal CanadiensHomeL 1–4
Mar 29Nashville Predators logoNashville PredatorsHomeW 3–2
Mar 28Ottawa Senators logoOttawa SenatorsHomeW 4–2
Mar 26Seattle Kraken logoSeattle KrakenHomeL 3–4 (OT)
Mar 24Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildHomeW 6–3