NHL Power Rankings Week 3: Avalanche Hold No. 1

The Colorado Avalanche remain at No. 1 the third week in a row. They went 2-0-1 this week, outscored opponents 10-7, and now sit at 5-2-1 on the season. Nathan MacKinnon led the way with six points (one goal, five assists). The top five is unchanged at the top: Colorado, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Dallas, then Washington, which moved up a spot.

The Top Five

1. Colorado Avalanche. The results keep coming, and the underlying numbers are lukewarm. The Avalanche posted a 48% xGF% and a 48.8% CF% this week, which rank 19th and 18th among the 32 teams. A team can win games on finishing and goaltending for a stretch, and Colorado has. Their rating still rose, and no one close to them did enough to pass them. Keep an eye on whether the shot share catches up with the record.

2. Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina went 2-1-0 and is 7-2-1 overall. This is the one top-five team whose process matches its place: a 56.2% xGF% (7th) and a 60.1% CF% (2nd). Andrei Svechnikov had two goals and an assist. The gap to Colorado is small, and a good week from the Hurricanes could close it.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning went 2-1-0 but gave back some rating points because the goals came out even at 9-9. They are 6-2-0 on the year. The 5-on-5 work was good, with a 54.2% xGF% and a 57.7% CF% (6th). Brandon Hagel led them with three points. I read this as a team with a slightly rough week on the scoreboard, not a slide.

4. Dallas Stars. Dallas outscored opponents 9-5 in a 2-1-0 week, the best goal differential among the top five. The season record is a more modest 4-3-1, and the 5-on-5 shares are close to even (48.6% xGF%, 50% CF%). Arttu Hyry scored all three of his points as goals. The Stars are holding their spot more than strengthening it.

5. Washington Capitals. Washington moved up a spot to No. 5 after a 2-1-0 week and an 11-10 goal margin. The underlying numbers disagree with the ranking. Their 40.3% xGF% ranks 30th and their 38.9% CF% ranks 32nd, the lowest share among teams that played. Alex Tuch had four points (two goals, two assists). Wins are wins, and the model rewards them, but this is the top-five team I would trust least on current play.

Teams Whose Results and Process Disagree

This week had several of these. They are worth watching because small samples tend to even out.

New Jersey. The Devils had the top xGF% (64.5%) and the top CF% (63.5%) of any team this week, and they went 2-2-0 with a 15-13 goal margin. They are 4-4-0 and sit 23rd. Jack Hughes had five points. If those shares hold, the record should follow.

Los Angeles. The Kings fell three spots to 20th after an 0-2-0 week in which they were outscored 8-2. They are 0-4-2 on the season. Their 62.3% xGF% ranked 2nd, and their 58.8% CF% ranked 4th. They are losing games they are controlling, and that usually does not last forever. It is still a painful start.

Pittsburgh. The Penguins went 0-3-0 and were outscored 16-7, dropping one spot to 17th. Their 5-on-5 work was strong (59.7% xGF%, 4th; 57.3% CF%, 7th). Sidney Crosby had four points. Their record is 3-5-1, so the standings have not been kind.

Edmonton and Vegas, on the other side. The Oilers went 2-1-0 with a 12-7 goal margin and are 6-1-1, but their 41.8% xGF% ranked 28th. Connor McDavid had ten points (three goals, seven assists), which helps explain it. The Golden Knights went 3-1-0 and scored 19 goals to allow 10, moving up a spot to 7th. Their xGF% was 41.6% (29th). Mark Stone had seven points. Both teams are getting more out of their chances than their shot shares suggest.

Notable Movers

Boston, up three to 12th. The Bruins went 3-0-0 and outscored opponents 14-6, with David Pastrnak collecting five points. They are 7-2-0. The shares were modest (48.3% xGF%, 44.6% CF%, 24th), so this was a results-driven jump.

Florida, up three to 16th. The Panthers went 3-1-0 and scored 21 goals, and their 53.2% xGF% and 58.8% CF% (3rd) back it up. Brady Tkachuk had ten points on six goals and four assists. Florida also has Matthew Tkachuk (ten points), Seth Jones (nine), Sam Reinhart (eight) and Carter Verhaeghe (six) among the league's top ten scorers this week.

New York Islanders, up four to 21st. The Islanders went 2-0-1 with an 8-5 goal margin, and their 58.6% CF% ranked 5th. They are the biggest climber on the board.

Anaheim and Toronto, each down four. The Ducks lost both of their games (outscored 8-4) and fell to 25th. The Maple Leafs went 0-2-1, were outscored 14-9, and fell to 26th. Toronto's 40.9% CF% ranked 28th, so the process was no better than the results.

The bottom. The Canucks remain 32nd after an 0-2-1 week and are 2-7-1 on the season. Their 40.3% xGF% and 39.5% CF% ranked 31st in both categories. Brock Boeser had three points. Nothing in this week's numbers suggests a quick fix.

Full Rankings

1. Colorado Avalanche — 2-0-1 this week
2. Carolina Hurricanes — 2-1-0 this week
3. Tampa Bay Lightning — 2-1-0 this week
4. Dallas Stars — 2-1-0 this week
5. Washington Capitals — up 1, 2-1-0 this week
6. Ottawa Senators — down 1, 2-2-0 this week
7. Vegas Golden Knights — up 1, 3-1-0 this week
8. Buffalo Sabres — down 1, 2-0-2 this week
9. Minnesota Wild — 3-1-0 this week
10. Edmonton Oilers — 2-1-0 this week
11. Montreal Canadiens — 2-1-0 this week
12. Boston Bruins — up 3, 3-0-0 this week
13. Utah Mammoth — down 1, 2-1-0 this week
14. Winnipeg Jets — 1-1-1 this week
15. St. Louis Blues — down 2, 1-2-0 this week
16. Florida Panthers — up 3, 3-1-0 this week
17. Pittsburgh Penguins — down 1, 0-3-0 this week
18. Detroit Red Wings — up 2, 2-0-1 this week
19. Columbus Blue Jackets — down 1, 1-2-0 this week
20. Los Angeles Kings — down 3, 0-2-0 this week
21. New York Islanders — up 4, 2-0-1 this week
22. New York Rangers — up 2, 1-1-1 this week
23. New Jersey Devils — 2-2-0 this week
24. Nashville Predators — up 2, 1-1-1 this week
25. Anaheim Ducks — down 4, 0-2-0 this week
26. Toronto Maple Leafs — down 4, 0-2-1 this week
27. Seattle Kraken — up 1, 1-1-1 this week
28. Philadelphia Flyers — down 1, 1-1-1 this week
29. Calgary Flames — 2-1-0 this week
30. San Jose Sharks — 1-1-1 this week
31. Chicago Blackhawks — 2-1-0 this week
32. Vancouver Canucks — 0-2-1 this week