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Toronto Maple Leafs logoTOR
vs
UTAUtah Mammoth logo
2026–27 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Utah Mammoth across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple Leafs3-3-17+246.446.846.429.2%95.8%
Utah Mammoth logoUtah Mammoth5-2-07+856.857.560.934.5%74.1%

Betting Considerations

Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple Leafs(Away)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
Averaging 4.0 goals/game last 5 (+17% vs season avg)
Allowing 3.8 goals/game last 5 (+16% vs season avg)
On 4-game road trip
0-1 vs Utah Mammoth this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Utah Mammoth
Lost 4 of last 7 games
4/10 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 29.2% average
PP (29.2%) has an edge vs Utah Mammoth's PK (74.1%)
Strong PK (95.8%) should limit Utah Mammoth's PP (34.5%)
Utah Mammoth logoUtah Mammoth(Home)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
Allowing 3.6 goals/game last 5 (+33% vs season avg)
1-0 vs Toronto Maple Leafs this season
2/16 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 34.5% average
Allowed 6 PP goals on 13 penalties in last 3 games — below their 74.1% average
PK (74.1%) vulnerable against Toronto Maple Leafs's PP (29.2%)

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Sergei Bobrovsky, projected starting goalie for Toronto Maple Leafs with 80% confidence based on recent rotation analysisS. Bobrovsky80%Back-to-back — backup played yesterday, rest day expected4.9070.74.793
Sebastian Cossa, projected starting goalie for Utah Mammoth with 75% confidence based on recent rotation analysisS. Cossa75%Back-to-back — starter played yesterday, rest day expected2.8521.58.1000

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Oct 13Utah Mammoth logoUtah MammothAwayL 4–5
Oct 10Colorado Avalanche logoColorado AvalancheAwayW 6–3
Oct 8Vegas Golden Knights logoVegas Golden KnightsAwayL 3–4 (SO)
Oct 6Nashville Predators logoNashville PredatorsHomeW 5–4 (OT)
Oct 3Ottawa Senators logoOttawa SenatorsHomeL 2–3
Sep 30New York Islanders logoNew York IslandersHomeW 2–1
Sep 29Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal CanadiensHomeL 2–3