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Toronto Maple Leafs logoTOR
vs
VANVancouver Canucks logo
2026–27 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple Leafs8-6-216+846.548.548.730.0%91.1%
Vancouver Canucks logoVancouver Canucks3-12-116-2544.142.639.719.6%66.7%

Betting Considerations

Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple Leafs(Away)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
4-3-1 on the road this season
Averaging 4.4 goals/game last 5 (+17% vs season avg)
On 5-game road trip
1-0 vs Vancouver Canucks this season
Allowed 3 PP goals on 14 penalties in last 3 games — below their 91.1% average
PP (30.0%) has an edge vs Vancouver Canucks's PK (66.7%)
Vancouver Canucks logoVancouver Canucks(Home)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
1-6-0 at home this season
0-1 vs Toronto Maple Leafs this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Toronto Maple Leafs
Lost 6 of last 7 games
Killed 7/9 penalties in last 3 games — above their 66.7% average
PK (66.7%) vulnerable against Toronto Maple Leafs's PP (30.0%)

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Sergei Bobrovsky, projected starting goalie for Toronto Maple Leafs with 80% confidence based on recent rotation analysisS. Bobrovsky80%Back-to-back — backup played yesterday, rest day expected10.8850.89.793
Kevin Lankinen, projected starting goalie for Vancouver Canucks with 80% confidence based on recent rotation analysisK. Lankinen80%Back-to-back — starter played yesterday, rest day expected8.8082.32.595

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Oct 31Vancouver Canucks logoVancouver CanucksAwayW 4–2
Oct 28Seattle Kraken logoSeattle KrakenAwayL 4–5
Oct 26Calgary Flames logoCalgary FlamesAwayL 2–5
Oct 24Edmonton Oilers logoEdmonton OilersAwayW 7–2
Oct 22New York Rangers logoNew York RangersHomeW 5–4
Oct 20Columbus Blue Jackets logoColumbus Blue JacketsAwayW 6–2
Oct 19San Jose Sharks logoSan Jose SharksHomeW 3–1
Oct 17New York Islanders logoNew York IslandersHomeL 1–4
Oct 15Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresHomeL 4–5 (OT)
Oct 13Utah Mammoth logoUtah MammothAwayL 4–5