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TBLvs
Tampa Bay Lightning(Away)
New York Rangers(Home)
TBLNYR
2026–27 Regular Season
Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.
Season Overview
| Team | Record | GP | +/- | CF% | FF% | xGF% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 4-2-0 | 6 | +1 | 55.3 | 55.6 | 56.9 | 8.3% | 80.0% |
| New York Rangers | 6-2-0 | 8 | +13 | 47.5 | 47.8 | 50.5 | 21.7% | 91.7% |
Betting Considerations
Tampa Bay Lightning(Away)Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
Allowing 2.2 goals/game last 5 (-17% vs season avg)
0-2 vs New York Rangers this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to New York Rangers
New York Rangers(Home)Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
5-0-0 at home this season
Averaging 4.0 goals/game last 5 (+19% vs season avg)
2-0 vs Tampa Bay Lightning this season
Projected Goalie Starters
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GAA | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Hildeby75%Back-to-back — starter played yesterday, rest day expected | 1 | .944 | 0.67 | .1000 |
 I. Shesterkin80%Back-to-back — backup played yesterday, rest day expected | 5 | .927 | 0.56 | .920 |
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