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Tampa Bay Lightning logoTBL
vs
NYRNew York Rangers logo
2026–27 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay Lightning4-2-06+155.355.656.98.3%80.0%
New York Rangers logoNew York Rangers6-2-08+1347.547.850.521.7%91.7%

Betting Considerations

Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay Lightning(Away)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
Allowing 2.2 goals/game last 5 (-17% vs season avg)
0-2 vs New York Rangers this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to New York Rangers
New York Rangers logoNew York Rangers(Home)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
5-0-0 at home this season
Averaging 4.0 goals/game last 5 (+19% vs season avg)
2-0 vs Tampa Bay Lightning this season

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Dennis Hildeby, projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay Lightning with 75% confidence based on recent rotation analysisD. Hildeby75%Back-to-back — starter played yesterday, rest day expected1.9440.67.1000
Igor Shesterkin, projected starting goalie for New York Rangers with 80% confidence based on recent rotation analysisI. Shesterkin80%Back-to-back — backup played yesterday, rest day expected5.9270.56.920

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Oct 13New York Rangers logoNew York RangersAwayL 1–4
Oct 10New York Islanders logoNew York IslandersAwayW 5–3
Oct 8Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildHomeW 3–2
Oct 5Philadelphia Flyers logoPhiladelphia FlyersHomeW 4–1
Oct 3Washington Capitals logoWashington CapitalsHomeW 3–1
Oct 1New York Rangers logoNew York RangersAwayL 1–5