Dylan Larkin's Suspension Follows the Connor Hellebuyck Playbook

After missing morning skate on Oct. 29, the Detroit Red Wings have suspended Dylan Larkin.

Larkin asked for a trade before the season and kept playing anyway. He appeared in 10 of Detroit's 13 games, the last a 4-3 overtime win in Edmonton on Oct. 26. Three days later the Red Wings beat Chicago 4-1 without him. The LivingHockey injury tracker lists his expected return as Nov. 14 (based on estimated suspension length - expect updates).

If that sequence sounds familiar, it should. Connor Hellebuyck asked the Winnipeg Jets for a trade before the season, never played for them, and was suspended. Before that suspension ran out and Winnipeg would have had to start paying him again on Oct. 30, his trade to the New Jersey Devils went through.

Detroit now appears to be running the same play. The difference is in the contracts, and that difference shifts who holds the cards.

How Detroit Got Here

Larkin playing through a trade request was always an awkward arrangement, and the numbers from those 10 games show a player producing below his usual level. He has 2 goals and 4 assists with 32 shots. Last season he scored 34 goals and 67 points in 74 games.

Detroit kept leaning on him regardless. His 21:41 average TOI is the most of any Red Wings forward, ahead of Lucas Raymond (20:29) and Alex DeBrincat (19:58). At 5-on-5 the process was fine: Detroit carried a 54.8% expected goals share with him on the ice. The goals went the other way, 10 against and 7 for. Ten games is a small sample, and that kind of gap between expected and actual usually evens out. It does not suggest a player who has stopped competing.

The team around him is in a muddled spot. Detroit is 6-4-3 with 15 points, 16th in the league standings and seventh in the Atlantic, with a 5-2-3 record over its last 10. Its 55.6% expected goals share at 5-on-5 is a better number than the standings show.

The timing hurts down the middle. Marco Kasper is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury (listed return Nov. 14) and Mason Appleton is on IR until a listed Nov. 10. That leaves Andrew Copp (18:16 a night, 3 points, 47.7% xG share) and Emmitt Finnie (5 goals, 9 points, 17:48) carrying the top center minutes Larkin vacated.

The Hellebuyck Template

Winnipeg's version played out with the player never dressing at all. The Jets opened 3-1-1 without him, then the floor gave way. They are 4-7-3, 27th in the league, last in the Central, and 1-7-2 in their last 10. They have allowed 3.36 goals per game.

Goaltending has not been the whole problem. Stuart Skinner has been solid, with +4.59 GSAx in nine games despite an .899 save percentage behind a team getting outshot on quality (46.1% expected goals share at 5-on-5). Clay Stevenson has been worse, at .870 and -1.60 GSAx in four games.

The game sheets also show two former Devils in Winnipeg's lineup. Dawson Mercer, who dressed for New Jersey through Oct. 22, has played the Jets' last four games. Nico Daws started Friday's 5-2 loss in Florida.

In New Jersey, Hellebuyck walked straight into the net and the Devils won both of his starts: 5-1 in Dallas and 5-2 in Vegas. He has a .923 save percentage and +1.07 GSAx. Two games mean little on their own, but the contrast with what New Jersey had is clear. Jake Allen and Daws were both at .887 with negative GSAx. The Devils are 9-5-0, second in the Metropolitan and seventh overall. Because our pre-game win probabilities include the projected starter's GSAx per 60, a Hellebuyck start now moves New Jersey's number in a way an Allen start did not.

For Winnipeg, the trade ended the standoff. For the player, it ended exactly where he wanted to go: out.

The Contract Difference

Hellebuyck had a no-movement clause. He could veto any trade. That fact shaped everything about Winnipeg's process. The Jets could shop him to all 31 other teams, but no deal could close without his yes. The suspension was their main lever, and it came with a clock. Once it ran out, they would be paying a player who was not playing, and that pressure landed on the team as much as on Hellebuyck.

Larkin's protection is a 10-team list rather than a blanket veto. His say over where he goes is limited to those 10 clubs. Hellebuyck could kill any deal Winnipeg built. Larkin cannot.

That gives Detroit more room. It can negotiate without needing the player to sign off on the full field of buyers, and a narrower veto means more chances that two teams can agree on value without a third party blocking it. However, rumors are his list of teams are the usual suspects: Vegas, Florida, Buffalo, Colorado, Carolina, etc - All in good spots and strapped for cash. Making a deal of Larkin's size this early in the season is too big of a risk for teams not certain of their Cup chances.

Who Has the Leverage

On paper, Detroit holds more than Winnipeg did. A partial clause means a wider market, and the suspension removes the awkwardness of a player suiting up while he wants out.

In practice, both teams share the same weakness: everyone knows. Every general manager can see that Detroit has suspended one of its best players and wants this resolved. Winnipeg faced that with Hellebuyck, and the Nov. 14 return date listed for Larkin looks like Detroit's version of the same clock. Buyers can wait for it (though Nov. 14 is very likely an underestimation).

Larkin's leverage is thinner than Hellebuyck's but real. He played through the request, so Detroit cannot frame him as a player who walked out, and his workload says the Red Wings needed him. Losing their top-minutes center weakens a team that is seventh in its division. If he stays suspended, he does not play. If he returns, the arrangement that led to the suspension is back.

My read is that Detroit is set up to get a better deal than Winnipeg did, and that the suspension is mainly a signal to the market that the Red Wings are done waiting. Whether it produces a better return depends on whether a buyer outside Larkin's list moves before the Nov. 14 date.

The Repercussions

For Detroit, the risk is the one Winnipeg lived through. The Jets have won once in 10 games, and the standings will not wait for a front office to finish a negotiation. Detroit is in a better position, with a positive expected goals share and a 5-2-3 run, but losing the forward who logs the most ice time is not a small change. The win over Chicago is one game.

For Larkin, the immediate cost is time away from the ice and the public framing that comes with a team suspension. Hellebuyck is a reasonable sign that the hockey side survives it: he stepped into a new net after a long layoff and played well right away. The reputational side is harder to measure, and a player traded under these conditions arrives with that story attached. Personally, I think he saw the team as completely content on letting him log 21 minutes a night and not rushing to find him a new deal and saw stepping away from the team as his best option. He tried to play in good faith until a deal was reached but no deal came.

For the league, two trade requests ending in team suspensions in the same autumn is a pattern. Teams that hand out full no-movement clauses saw how much one cost Winnipeg. Players saw that even a full veto did not keep Hellebuyck from being suspended. Both sides will remember that at the next negotiating table.