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TORvs
Toronto Maple Leafs(Away)
Ottawa Senators(Home)
TOROTT
2025–26 Regular Season
Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.
Season Overview
| Team | Record | GP | +/- | CF% | FF% | xGF% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 32-36-14 | 82 | -43 | 44.6 | 44.8 | 45.9 | 21.3% | 81.2% |
| Ottawa Senators | 44-30-12 | 82 | +30 | 53.3 | 54 | 55.1 | 22.5% | 76.4% |
Betting Considerations
Toronto Maple Leafs(Away)41 days rest
10 more days rest than opponent
Lost 7 consecutive games
14-21-6 on the road this season
Averaging 2.2 goals/game last 5 (-29% vs season avg)
Allowing 4.8 goals/game last 5 (+32% vs season avg)
1-3 vs Ottawa Senators this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Ottawa Senators
2/5 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 21.3% average
Allowed 3 PP goals on 7 penalties in last 3 games — below their 81.2% average
Missing Anthony Stolarz (Out) — 26 GP starter
Ottawa Senators(Home)31 days rest
10 fewer days rest than opponent
Lost 4 consecutive games
23-14-6 at home this season
Averaging 1.6 goals/game last 5 (-51% vs season avg)
Allowing 2.4 goals/game last 5 (-20% vs season avg)
3-1 vs Toronto Maple Leafs this season
1/17 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 22.5% average
Projected Goalie Starters
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GAA | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Hildeby42%Tandem split (7% start rate), 1 consecutive | 20 | .913 | 0.94 | .838 |
 J. Reimer60%Tandem split (40% start rate), 2 consecutive | 14 | .886 | 0.83 | .755 |
Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | Ottawa Senators | Away | L 1–3 |
| Apr 13 |  Dallas Stars | Home | L 5–6 |
| Apr 11 |  Florida Panthers | Home | L 2–6 |
| Apr 9 |  New York Islanders | Away | L 3–5 |
| Apr 8 |  Washington Capitals | Home | L 0–4 |
| Apr 4 |  Los Angeles Kings | Away | L 6–7 (OT) |
| Apr 2 |  San Jose Sharks | Away | L 1–4 |
| Mar 30 |  Anaheim Ducks | Away | W 5–4 (OT) |
| Mar 28 |  St. Louis Blues | Away | L 1–5 |
| Mar 25 |  New York Rangers | Home | W 4–3 |