TOR

vs

NYI

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

Team	Record	GP	+/-	CF%	FF%	xGF%	PP%	PK%
Toronto Maple Leafs	32-33-14	79	-36	44.6	44.8	45.9	20.8%	82.0%
New York Islanders	43-31-5	79	-1	49.4	49.6	47.4	17.2%	81.1%

Betting Considerations

Toronto Maple Leafs(Away)

Lost 4 consecutive games

14-20-6 on the road this season

Allowing 4.8 goals/game last 5 (+34% vs season avg)

0-2-1 vs New York Islanders this season

Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to New York Islanders

3/8 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 20.8% average

Missing Anthony Stolarz (DTD) — 26 GP starter

New York Islanders(Home)

22-14-2 at home this season

Allowing 4.6 goals/game last 5 (+57% vs season avg)

3-0 vs Toronto Maple Leafs this season

Lost 4 of last 7 games

Projected Goalie Starters

Goalie	GP	SV%	GAA	HDSV%
A. Akhtyamov62%Clear #1 (7% start rate), 1 consecutive start	2	.913	1.34	.800
D. Rittich50%Game tomorrow — starter may rest tonight after 12 consecutive starts	29	.894	0.91	.849

Last 10 Games

Toronto Maple LeafsNew York Islanders

Date	Opponent	H/A	Result
Apr 9	New York Islanders	Away	L 3–5
Apr 8	Washington Capitals	Home	L 0–4
Apr 4	Los Angeles Kings	Away	L 6–7 (OT)
Apr 2	San Jose Sharks	Away	L 1–4
Mar 30	Anaheim Ducks	Away	W 5–4 (OT)
Mar 28	St. Louis Blues	Away	L 1–5
Mar 25	New York Rangers	Home	W 4–3
Mar 24	Boston Bruins	Away	W 4–2
Mar 21	Ottawa Senators	Away	L 2–5
Mar 20	Carolina Hurricanes	Home	L 3–4 (OT)