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NYRvs
New York Rangers(Away)
Tampa Bay Lightning(Home)
NYRTBL
2025–26 Regular Season
Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.
Season Overview
| Team | Record | GP | +/- | CF% | FF% | xGF% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 34-39-9 | 82 | -14 | 48.6 | 47.8 | 49.2 | 24.7% | 79.9% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 53-28-8 | 82 | +57 | 52.8 | 52.1 | 53.5 | 20.4% | 82.4% |
Betting Considerations
New York Rangers(Away)41 days rest
18 more days rest than opponent
20-19-2 on the road this season
Averaging 3.4 goals/game last 5 (+17% vs season avg)
On 4-game road trip
2-1 vs Tampa Bay Lightning this season
Lost 4 of last 7 games
1/11 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 24.7% average
Tampa Bay Lightning(Home)23 days rest
18 fewer days rest than opponent
27-16-2 at home this season
Averaging 1.8 goals/game last 5 (-47% vs season avg)
Allowing 2.0 goals/game last 5 (-28% vs season avg)
1-2 vs New York Rangers this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to New York Rangers
Lost 4 of last 7 games
Killed 7/7 penalties in last 3 games — above their 82.4% average
Projected Goalie Starters
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GAA | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Garand55%Tandem split (20% start rate), 1 consecutive | 3 | .948 | 0.44 | .842 |
 B. Halverson62%Clear #1 (7% start rate), 1 consecutive start | 1 | .810 | 1.41 | .1000 |
Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Away | W 4–2 |
| Apr 13 |  Florida Panthers | Away | L 2–3 |
| Apr 11 |  Dallas Stars | Away | L 0–2 |
| Apr 8 |  Buffalo Sabres | Home | L 3–5 |
| Apr 5 |  Washington Capitals | Home | W 8–1 |
| Apr 4 |  Detroit Red Wings | Home | W 4–1 |
| Apr 2 |  Montreal Canadiens | Home | L 2–3 |
| Mar 31 |  New Jersey Devils | Home | W 4–1 |
| Mar 29 | Florida Panthers | Home | W 3–1 |
| Mar 27 |  Chicago Blackhawks | Home | W 6–1 |