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Montreal Canadiens logoMTL
vs
NYINew York Islanders logo
2025–26 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Montreal Canadiens vs New York Islanders across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal Canadiens57-28-1482+2948.449.44823.3%78.1%
New York Islanders logoNew York Islanders43-34-582-849.749.847.516.5%80.8%

Betting Considerations

Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal Canadiens(Away)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
41 fewer days rest than opponent
31-10-10 on the road this season
Allowing 3.6 goals/game last 5 (+18% vs season avg)
2-0-1 vs New York Islanders this season
Lost 4 of last 7 games
Killed 8/8 penalties in last 3 games — above their 78.1% average
New York Islanders logoNew York Islanders(Home)
42 days rest
41 more days rest than opponent
Lost 3 consecutive games
22-17-2 at home this season
Averaging 2.0 goals/game last 5 (-30% vs season avg)
On 5-game homestand
1-2 vs Montreal Canadiens this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Montreal Canadiens
0/9 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 16.5% average

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Jakub Dobes, projected starting goalie for Montreal Canadiens with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisJ. Dobes85%Clear #1 (67% start rate), 1 consecutive start43.9011.15.811
David Rittich, projected starting goalie for New York Islanders with 62% confidence based on recent rotation analysisD. Rittich62%Clear #1 (7% start rate), 1 consecutive start30.8940.91.850

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
May 25Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesHomeL 2–3 (OT)
May 23Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesAwayL 2–3 (OT)
May 21Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesAwayW 6–2
May 18Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayW 3–2 (OT)
May 16Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresHomeL 3–8
May 14Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayW 6–3
May 12Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresHomeL 2–3
May 10Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresHomeW 6–2
May 8Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayW 5–1
May 6Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayL 2–4