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DETvs
Detroit Red Wings(Away)
Tampa Bay Lightning(Home)
DETTBL
2025–26 Regular Season
Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.
Season Overview
| Team | Record | GP | +/- | CF% | FF% | xGF% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 41-31-10 | 82 | -15 | 49.3 | 50.3 | 50.7 | 22.6% | 77.1% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 53-28-8 | 82 | +57 | 52.8 | 52.1 | 53.5 | 20.4% | 82.4% |
Betting Considerations
Detroit Red Wings(Away)41 days rest
18 more days rest than opponent
Lost 3 consecutive games
20-15-6 on the road this season
Allowing 4.8 goals/game last 5 (+53% vs season avg)
1-2-1 vs Tampa Bay Lightning this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Tampa Bay Lightning
0/7 on the PP in last 3 games — below their 22.6% average
Tampa Bay Lightning(Home)23 days rest
18 fewer days rest than opponent
27-16-2 at home this season
Averaging 1.8 goals/game last 5 (-47% vs season avg)
Allowing 2.0 goals/game last 5 (-28% vs season avg)
3-0-1 vs Detroit Red Wings this season
Lost 4 of last 7 games
Killed 7/7 penalties in last 3 games — above their 82.4% average
Projected Goalie Starters
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GAA | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Gibson85%Clear #1 (80% start rate), 1 consecutive start | 57 | .902 | 0.84 | .796 |
 B. Halverson62%Clear #1 (7% start rate), 1 consecutive start | 1 | .810 | 1.41 | .1000 |
Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 |  Florida Panthers | Away | L 1–8 |
| Apr 13 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Away | L 3–4 (OT) |
| Apr 11 |  New Jersey Devils | Home | L 3–5 |
| Apr 9 |  Philadelphia Flyers | Home | W 6–3 |
| Apr 7 |  Columbus Blue Jackets | Home | L 3–4 (SO) |
| Apr 5 |  Minnesota Wild | Home | L 4–5 |
| Apr 4 |  New York Rangers | Away | L 1–4 |
| Apr 2 | Philadelphia Flyers | Away | W 4–2 |
| Mar 31 |  Pittsburgh Penguins | Away | L 1–5 |
| Mar 28 | Philadelphia Flyers | Home | L 3–5 |