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DALvs
Dallas Stars(Away)
Toronto Maple Leafs(Home)
DALTOR
2025–26 Regular Season
Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.
Season Overview
| Team | Record | GP | +/- | CF% | FF% | xGF% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | 52-23-13 | 82 | +51 | 47.9 | 48.5 | 52.3 | 29.7% | 80.7% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 32-36-14 | 82 | -43 | 44.6 | 44.8 | 45.9 | 21.3% | 81.2% |
Betting Considerations
Dallas Stars(Away)26 days rest
15 fewer days rest than opponent
Lost 3 consecutive games
25-10-9 on the road this season
Averaging 2.8 goals/game last 5 (-16% vs season avg)
Allowing 3.4 goals/game last 5 (+20% vs season avg)
2-0 vs Toronto Maple Leafs this season
4/8 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 29.7% average
Toronto Maple Leafs(Home)41 days rest
15 more days rest than opponent
Lost 7 consecutive games
18-15-8 at home this season
Averaging 2.2 goals/game last 5 (-29% vs season avg)
Allowing 4.8 goals/game last 5 (+32% vs season avg)
0-2 vs Dallas Stars this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Dallas Stars
2/5 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 21.3% average
Allowed 3 PP goals on 7 penalties in last 3 games — below their 81.2% average
Missing Anthony Stolarz (Out) — 26 GP starter
Projected Goalie Starters
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GAA | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Oettinger85%Clear #1 (67% start rate), 1 consecutive start | 54 | .899 | 0.91 | .793 |
 D. Hildeby42%Tandem split (7% start rate), 1 consecutive | 20 | .913 | 0.94 | .838 |
Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 |  Minnesota Wild | Away | L 2–5 |
| Apr 28 | Minnesota Wild | Home | L 2–4 |
| Apr 25 | Minnesota Wild | Away | L 2–3 (OT) |
| Apr 22 | Minnesota Wild | Away | W 4–3 (SO) |
| Apr 20 | Minnesota Wild | Home | W 4–2 |
| Apr 18 | Minnesota Wild | Home | L 1–6 |
| Apr 15 |  Buffalo Sabres | Away | W 4–3 (SO) |
| Apr 13 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Away | W 6–5 |
| Apr 11 |  New York Rangers | Home | W 2–0 |
| Apr 9 | Minnesota Wild | Home | W 5–4 |