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Dallas Stars logoDAL
vs
BUFBuffalo Sabres logo
2025–26 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Dallas Stars vs Buffalo Sabres across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Dallas Stars logoDallas Stars52-23-1382+5147.948.552.329.7%80.7%
Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo Sabres57-27-1182+4348.849.449.319.7%81.0%

Betting Considerations

Dallas Stars logoDallas Stars(Away)
26 days rest
18 more days rest than opponent
Lost 3 consecutive games
25-10-9 on the road this season
Averaging 2.8 goals/game last 5 (-16% vs season avg)
Allowing 3.4 goals/game last 5 (+20% vs season avg)
1-1 vs Buffalo Sabres this season
4/8 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 29.7% average
Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo Sabres(Home)
8 days rest
18 fewer days rest than opponent
28-13-7 at home this season
Allowing 4.0 goals/game last 5 (+36% vs season avg)
1-0-1 vs Dallas Stars this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Dallas Stars
Lost 4 of last 7 games
4/9 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 19.7% average
Allowed 4 PP goals on 6 penalties in last 3 games — below their 81.0% average

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Jake Oettinger, projected starting goalie for Dallas Stars with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisJ. Oettinger85%Clear #1 (67% start rate), 1 consecutive start54.8990.91.793
Colten Ellis, projected starting goalie for Buffalo Sabres with 55% confidence based on recent rotation analysisC. Ellis55%Tandem split (20% start rate), 1 consecutive16.9030.84.842

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Apr 30Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildAwayL 2–5
Apr 28Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildHomeL 2–4
Apr 25Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildAwayL 2–3 (OT)
Apr 22Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildAwayW 4–3 (SO)
Apr 20Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildHomeW 4–2
Apr 18Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildHomeL 1–6
Apr 15Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayW 4–3 (SO)
Apr 13Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple LeafsAwayW 6–5
Apr 11New York Rangers logoNew York RangersHomeW 2–0
Apr 9Minnesota Wild logoMinnesota WildHomeW 5–4