NHL Predictions Tonight: Avalanche at Jets, Penguins at Capitals, Oilers at Ducks

Three games tonight, two at 7:30 PM ET and one at 10:00 PM ET. None of the six teams is on the second night of a back-to-back, so rest isn't a factor anywhere. Live updates are on Today's Games. I've run the numbers through the model and am ready for tonight's games.

Avalanche at Jets: The Top Team Is the Road Favorite, Barely

The Colorado Avalanche are 2-0-0 and sit first in our power rankings. Their Elo rating is 1560, against 1506 for the Winnipeg Jets. Even so, the model gives Colorado only 54% in this game. Home ice for Winnipeg is part of that, and so is the goalie matchup.

Clay Stevenson is the projected Winnipeg starter. In one game he has a .935 save percentage and 2.35 GSAx per 60. Mackenzie Blackwood is projected for Colorado, with a .912 save percentage and 0.7 GSAx per 60 over two games. Those are season, all-situations lines for context. The model's own goalie input is 5-on-5 GSAx/60 calculated at game time.

Winnipeg's 5v5 expected goals share (xG) is 45.2%, and Colorado's is 52.4%. The Connor Hellebuyck saga continues so he is still unavailable.

Penguins at Capitals: The Shot Numbers and the Probability Disagree

The Washington Capitals are 59% favorites against the Pittsburgh Penguins in this one. Washington has the higher Elo (1524 to 1505) and home ice. The early underlying numbers point the other way. Pittsburgh's 5v5 xG share is 56.7% across three games, and Washington's is 45.3% across two. Washington is 1-1-0 and Pittsburgh is 2-1-0. The model leans on Elo and the broader setup more than on a handful of games, which is why the gap shows up.

Charlie Lindgren is projected in the Washington net (.931, 1.83 GSAx per 60 in one game). Sergei Murashov is projected for Pittsburgh (.909, 0.45 GSAx per 60 in one game). Matt Roy is day-to-day for Washington. Pittsburgh's Ryan Graves is on injured reserve with a knee injury and an expected return of Oct. 24. The full list is on the injuries page.

Oilers at Ducks: Elo Likes Edmonton, the Model Still Picks Anaheim

The late game is the most interesting split. The Edmonton Oilers have the higher Elo (1513 to 1484 for the Anaheim Ducks), and the better 5v5 shot profile: a 53.4% xG share and a 57.6% Corsi share, against 42.1% and 41.2% for Anaheim. Yet the model has Anaheim at 56% in this game.

With Elo pointing toward Edmonton, what pulls the number toward Anaheim is home ice and the goalie matchup. Devon Levi is projected for Edmonton, with a .810 save percentage and -1.64 GSAx per 60 over two games. Lukas Dostal is projected for Anaheim, with a .918 save percentage and 1.4 GSAx per 60 over two games. Two games is a tiny sample, so treat both lines as early information, not a verdict.

Edmonton's injury list is long. Zach Hyman is out (expected return late October). Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury but will hopefully only be sidelined for 1 to 2 weeks. Frederik Andersen is on injured reserve with a knee injury and an expected return of late December. Anaheim's Troy Terry is on injured reserve with a hip injury and an expected return of late November.

The Bottom Line

None of these is a lopsided game. Keep track of live updates on Today's Games once lineups are confirmed!