NHL Power Rankings Week 1: Colorado Opens at No. 1

Colorado opens the season at No. 1 in the Week 1 power rankings. The Avalanche went 2-0-0 this week and outscored opponents 14-5. Nathan MacKinnon led the way with 5 points on 2 goals and 3 assists.

The Top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche had the cleanest results of the group. Two wins and a 14-5 goal margin make for a strong start. The 5-on-5 numbers were middling, though. Colorado's xGF% of 52.4 ranked 13th among the 32 teams that played, and its CF% of 50 ranked 18th. The scoreboard ran ahead of the shot and chance shares this week. That is a reasonable thing to keep an eye on, but it doesn't change who is on top.

2. Carolina Hurricanes went 1-1-1 and were outscored 8-5. Sebastian Aho was the bright spot with 3 goals and an assist. The process looked better than the results. Carolina's CF% of 57.6 ranked 7th, and its xGF% was 51.8. Three games is not much to go on, but the shot volume is what you would expect from this team.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning split two games and were outscored 6-4. The chance share was solid, with a 57.5 xGF% that ranked 7th. Jake Guentzel had 3 points (1 goal, 2 assists). The CF% of 53 ranked 14th, so the quality of the chances looked better than the raw volume.

4. Buffalo Sabres went 1-1-0 with a 7-9 goal margin, but the underlying numbers were among the best in the league. Buffalo posted a 60.2 xGF% (3rd) and a 61.6 CF% (2nd). Owen Power picked up 3 assists. A team that controls play like that usually sees the goals come around, though two games can't confirm it.

5. Dallas Stars had the roughest week of the top five. They went 0-2-0 and were outscored 6-1. Miro Heiskanen scored the team's lone goal, which was also his only point. The 5-on-5 numbers were around even, with a 49.5 xGF% and a 52.5 CF%. Dallas stays in the top five because one winless week is a small sample against what the model already knew about this team.

Top Three by Division

Here are the three highest-ranked teams in each division, with their week-one results.

The Central has the most separation at the top, with Colorado first overall and Dallas fifth. The Pacific is the only division whose top three all sit outside the overall top nine.

Where Results and Numbers Disagree

With so few games, the most useful thing to look at this week is where the record points one way and the 5-on-5 play points the other.

Good process, poor results. The New Jersey Devils rank 22nd, yet they led the league in both xGF% (63.5) and CF% (66.2). They went 1-1-0 and were outscored 8-3. The Florida Panthers are 19th after a 1-0-2 week, with the 2nd-best xGF% (62.4) and the 4th-best CF% (58.7). The Detroit Red Wings went 0-2-0 with a 2-5 goal margin, but their CF% of 59.2 ranked 3rd. The Los Angeles Kings went 0-1-1 and were outscored 13-8, despite a 60.2 xGF% that ranked 4th. The Calgary Flames were outscored 16-3 in an 0-3-0 week, yet held a 56.9 CF% (9th) and an even 50 xGF%.

Good results, thin process. The Seattle Kraken went 2-1-0 and outscored opponents 13-5. Their 41.9 CF% ranked 28th, and their 47.9 xGF% ranked 20th. The New York Rangers went 3-1-0 in four games, but posted a 46.2 xGF% (22nd) and a 44.3 CF% (23rd). The San Jose Sharks won both games and Macklin Celebrini had 5 assists, but their 38.1 xGF% ranked 30th. The Ottawa Senators are sixth after one win, 3-2, with a 40.5 xGF% that ranked 29th. That is a one-game sample, so read it lightly.

The bottom of the board. The Philadelphia Flyers went 0-1-2 and were outscored 13-4. They ranked last in both xGF% (32.2) and CF% (33.6), so the results and the numbers agree. The Chicago Blackhawks went 0-3-0 and were outscored 15-5, with a 37.9 xGF% that ranked 31st. The Vancouver Canucks sit 32nd after a 2-2-0 week and a 19-18 goal margin. Paul Cotter had 6 points on 4 goals and 2 assists.

Individual Notes

The week's top scorer was Connor McDavid, with 9 points (2 goals, 7 assists) as the Edmonton Oilers went 2-0-1. Teammate Evan Bouchard was second with 8 points on 4 goals and 4 assists. Jack Eichel of Vegas had 6 points, all but one of them assists.

The Bottom Line

Colorado starts on top with the best results of the top five, even if its 5-on-5 numbers were ordinary. Buffalo, New Jersey and Florida showed more in the underlying play than their records did, while Seattle, the Rangers and San Jose got more from the scoreboard than from the shot and chance shares. One week settles very little. Watch whether those gaps close as the sample grows, and check back for the next update on the power rankings page.