Evan Bouchard and the Oilers Are on a Scoring Spree

The Edmonton Oilers have scored 31 goals in 7 games. At the front of that run is a defenseman: Evan Bouchard has 6 goals, and the Oilers' other early finisher is a winger on the third line of the fantasy radar, which we'll get to.

This is fun to watch. It is also the kind of start that usually cools, and the numbers show how far ahead of the chances it is. Everything here comes through games played on Oct. 16, so the samples are small.

Bouchard's Finishing Is Well Ahead of His Chances

Bouchard has 6 goals on 1.2 individual expected goals, a gap of +4.8. Expected goals (xG) estimate how many goals a player should have scored given the quality of his shots. A defenseman with 1.2 xG has been getting point shots and the occasional good look, not a steady diet of high-danger chances.

He has taken 25 shots, and 6 of them have gone in, a 24% shooting percentage. Last season he shot 9.5%. A jump from 9.5% to 24% over seven games is the textbook profile of a hot streak, not a new skill level.

The volume deserves credit. Twenty-five shots in 7 games means he is shooting often, and that part of his game should hold. The finishing rate is what tends to come back down. If he keeps shooting at this pace but converts closer to last season's rate, the goals will slow while the shots keep coming.

The Whole Team Is Running Hot

Bouchard is not alone. Edmonton has scored 31 goals against 19.39 team expected goals, a difference of +11.61. That means the Oilers are scoring well above what their chances alone would predict, and Bouchard accounts for a large share of the gap.

Vasily Podkolzin is the other Edmonton name on our hot list. He has 7 goals on 3.43 xG (+3.57), shooting 31.8% on 22 shots after shooting 13.7% last season. Like Bouchard, he is converting at roughly double what his chances suggest.

Two players beating their expected goals this heavily on the same team is partly a sign of a good offense and partly a sign of bounces. Early in the season, those two things are hard to separate.

A Shake-Up on the Back End

Edmonton's defense also shows up in our ice-time changes. Over his last 3 games, Connor Murphy is averaging 22:45 of time on ice, up from 17:32 last season, a jump of 5.2 minutes. Shakir Mukhamadullin is moving the other way, at 12:05 over the last 3 games compared with 17:08 last season.

That could mean a lineup change, matchups, or special-teams usage. The data doesn't say which. It is worth watching if you roster Edmonton defensemen, since minutes feed directly into shot volume and points.

What It Means for Fantasy

Bouchard is a sell-high candidate if someone in your league will pay for the goals. Defensemen who score at a 24% clip rarely keep it up, and his expected goals say the shot quality has not matched the results. If you hold him, the shot volume and Edmonton's offense still make him a useful piece. The goals are what you would be selling.

Podkolzin is a similar case, though a forward's role is easier to hold onto if the points keep coming. If he is on your waiver wire, remember that 31.8% shooting is the number that tends to fall.

For the full list of who is running hot and cold, see the Trends page.