WSH

vs

TBL

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

Team	Record	GP	+/-	CF%	FF%	xGF%	PP%	PK%
Washington Capitals	2-1-0	3	+3	45.2	45.6	45.4	25.0%	91.7%
Tampa Bay Lightning	2-1-0	3	+1	56.6	57.9	61.2	0.0%	85.7%

Betting Considerations

Washington Capitals(Away)

Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back

2 fewer days rest than opponent

0-1 vs Tampa Bay Lightning this season

Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning(Home)

2 more days rest than opponent

1-0 vs Washington Capitals this season

Strong PK (85.7%) should limit Washington Capitals's PP (25.0%)

Projected Goalie Starters

Goalie	GP	SV%	GAA	HDSV%
C. Lindgren50%Back-to-back — starter played yesterday, rest day expected	1	.931	0.69	.1000
A. Vasilevskiy50%Only goalie with starts (3/3 games)	3	.900	0.51	.750

Last 10 Games

Washington CapitalsTampa Bay Lightning

Date	Opponent	H/A	Result
Oct 7	Pittsburgh Penguins	Home	W 5–3
Oct 3	Tampa Bay Lightning	Away	L 1–3
Oct 2	Carolina Hurricanes	Away	W 5–2