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Ottawa Senators logoOTT
vs
TORToronto Maple Leafs logo
2026–27 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Ottawa Senators logoOttawa Senators2-1-03+24747.750.47.7%76.9%
Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple Leafs2-2-04+051.251.350.721.4%90.9%

Betting Considerations

Ottawa Senators logoOttawa Senators(Away)
On 4-game road trip
1-0 vs Toronto Maple Leafs this season
Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple Leafs(Home)
On 5-game homestand
0-1 vs Ottawa Senators this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Ottawa Senators

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Samuel Ersson, projected starting goalie for Ottawa Senators with 50% confidence based on recent rotation analysisS. Ersson50%Clear #1 (33% start rate), 1 consecutive start2.8861.55.800
Anthony Stolarz, projected starting goalie for Toronto Maple Leafs with 50% confidence based on recent rotation analysisA. Stolarz50%Tandem split (50% start rate), 1 consecutive2.9040.61.700

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Oct 6Detroit Red Wings logoDetroit Red WingsAwayL 3–5
Oct 5Boston Bruins logoBoston BruinsAwayW 4–1
Oct 3Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple LeafsAwayW 3–2