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Ottawa Senators logoOTT
vs
DETDetroit Red Wings logo
2026–27 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Ottawa Senators logoOttawa Senators2-1-03+24747.750.47.7%76.9%
Detroit Red Wings logoDetroit Red Wings1-2-03-155.655.65625.0%61.5%

Betting Considerations

Ottawa Senators logoOttawa Senators(Away)
On 4-game road trip
0-1 vs Detroit Red Wings this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Detroit Red Wings
PK (76.9%) vulnerable against Detroit Red Wings's PP (25.0%)
Detroit Red Wings logoDetroit Red Wings(Home)
On 4-game homestand
1-0 vs Ottawa Senators this season
PP (25.0%) has an edge vs Ottawa Senators's PK (76.9%)

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Samuel Ersson, projected starting goalie for Ottawa Senators with 50% confidence based on recent rotation analysisS. Ersson50%Clear #1 (33% start rate), 1 consecutive start2.8861.55.800
John Gibson, projected starting goalie for Detroit Red Wings with 50% confidence based on recent rotation analysisJ. Gibson50%Only goalie with starts (3/3 games)3.9030.79.909

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Oct 6Detroit Red Wings logoDetroit Red WingsAwayL 3–5
Oct 5Boston Bruins logoBoston BruinsAwayW 4–1
Oct 3Toronto Maple Leafs logoToronto Maple LeafsAwayW 3–2