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Montreal Canadiens logoMTL
vs
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers logo
2025–26 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Montreal Canadiens vs Philadelphia Flyers across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal Canadiens48-24-1082+2948.449.44823.1%78.2%
Philadelphia Flyers logoPhiladelphia Flyers44-27-1282+148.349.25115.5%77.7%

Betting Considerations

Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal Canadiens(Away)
5 days rest
4 more days rest than opponent
24-9-8 on the road this season
Averaging 2.8 goals/game last 5 (-19% vs season avg)
0-2-1 vs Philadelphia Flyers this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Philadelphia Flyers
PP (23.1%) has an edge vs Philadelphia Flyers's PK (77.7%)
Philadelphia Flyers logoPhiladelphia Flyers(Home)
Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back
4 fewer days rest than opponent
Won 4 consecutive games
20-13-8 at home this season
Averaging 4.0 goals/game last 5 (+31% vs season avg)
3-0 vs Montreal Canadiens this season

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Jakub Dobes, projected starting goalie for Montreal Canadiens with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisJ. Dobes85%Clear #1 (67% start rate), 1 consecutive start43.9010.82.811
Samuel Ersson, projected starting goalie for Philadelphia Flyers with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisS. Ersson85%Clear #1 (33% start rate), 1 consecutive start33.8700.94.791

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
Apr 14Philadelphia Flyers logoPhiladelphia FlyersAwayL 2–4
Apr 12New York Islanders logoNew York IslandersAwayW 4–1
Apr 11Columbus Blue Jackets logoColumbus Blue JacketsHomeL 2–5
Apr 9Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay LightningHomeW 2–1
Apr 7Florida Panthers logoFlorida PanthersHomeW 4–3 (SO)
Apr 5New Jersey Devils logoNew Jersey DevilsHomeL 0–3
Apr 4New Jersey Devils logoNew Jersey DevilsAwayW 4–3 (SO)
Apr 2New York Rangers logoNew York RangersAwayW 3–2
Mar 31Tampa Bay Lightning logoTampa Bay LightningAwayW 4–1
Mar 29Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesAwayW 3–1