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Montreal Canadiens logoMTL
vs
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers logo
2025–26 Regular Season

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Montreal Canadiens vs Philadelphia Flyers across the 2025–26 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. Betting considerations highlight Elo-based win probabilities, implied odds from sportsbooks, and situational edges worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

TeamRecordGP+/-CF%FF%xGF%PP%PK%
Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal Canadiens57-30-1482+2948.449.44823.1%78.2%
Philadelphia Flyers logoPhiladelphia Flyers47-31-1482+148.349.25114.8%78.7%

Betting Considerations

Montreal Canadiens logoMontreal Canadiens(Away)
42 days rest
20 fewer days rest than opponent
Lost 4 consecutive games
31-11-10 on the road this season
Averaging 2.2 goals/game last 5 (-34% vs season avg)
Allowing 3.6 goals/game last 5 (+17% vs season avg)
0-2-1 vs Philadelphia Flyers this season
Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers logoPhiladelphia Flyers(Home)
62 days rest
20 more days rest than opponent
Lost 4 consecutive games
22-15-9 at home this season
Averaging 1.2 goals/game last 5 (-59% vs season avg)
3-0 vs Montreal Canadiens this season

Projected Goalie Starters

GoalieGPSV%GAAHDSV%
Jakub Dobes, projected starting goalie for Montreal Canadiens with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisJ. Dobes85%Clear #1 (67% start rate), 1 consecutive start43.9011.23.811
Samuel Ersson, projected starting goalie for Philadelphia Flyers with 85% confidence based on recent rotation analysisS. Ersson85%Clear #1 (33% start rate), 1 consecutive start33.8700.94.791

Last 10 Games

DateOpponentH/AResult
May 29Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesAwayL 1–6
May 27Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesHomeL 0–4
May 25Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesHomeL 2–3 (OT)
May 23Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesAwayL 2–3 (OT)
May 21Carolina Hurricanes logoCarolina HurricanesAwayW 6–2
May 18Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayW 3–2 (OT)
May 16Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresHomeL 3–8
May 14Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresAwayW 6–3
May 12Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresHomeL 2–3
May 10Buffalo Sabres logoBuffalo SabresHomeW 6–2