BUF

vs

MTL

Complete head-to-head matchup analysis for Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens across the 2026–27 regular season. This page compares overall records, Corsi and Fenwick possession rates, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities — plus projected starting goalies with their GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) ratings. The model section compares Elo-based win probabilities with market implied odds and notes situational factors worth watching. The last 10 games section shows recent form with per-game CF%, xGF%, and results so you can identify momentum and trends heading into the next matchup.

Season Overview

Team	Record	GP	+/-	CF%	FF%	xGF%	PP%	PK%
Buffalo Sabres	3-3-1	7	-6	52.7	51.6	53	11.1%	60.9%
Montreal Canadiens	3-2-1	6	-5	53.9	53.7	50.3	10.0%	80.8%

Betting Considerations

Buffalo Sabres(Away)

Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back

0-0-1 vs Montreal Canadiens this season

Seeking revenge after losing last matchup to Montreal Canadiens

Lost 4 of last 7 games

3/14 on the PP in last 3 games — well above their 11.1% average

Montreal Canadiens(Home)

Playing on 2nd game of back-to-back

On 5-game homestand

1-0 vs Buffalo Sabres this season

Projected Goalie Starters

Goalie	GP	SV%	GAA	HDSV%
C. Ellis75%Back-to-back — starter played yesterday, rest day expected	3	.864	0.94	.700
J. Dobes80%Back-to-back — backup played yesterday, rest day expected	3	.856	1.11	.680

Last 10 Games

Buffalo SabresMontreal Canadiens

Date	Opponent	H/A	Result
Oct 13	Montreal Canadiens	Away	L 3–4 (SO)
Oct 12	Florida Panthers	Home	W 5–3
Oct 10	Utah Mammoth	Home	L 1–4
Oct 8	Dallas Stars	Home	L 0–4
Oct 6	Minnesota Wild	Home	W 3–2 (OT)
Oct 3	Chicago Blackhawks	Home	W 4–3
Oct 1	Columbus Blue Jackets	Away	L 3–6