Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens

2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs · First Round

Tampa Bay Lightning

Higher seed · Eastern Conference

0 – 0

Series not started

Montreal Canadiens

Lower seed · Eastern Conference

Next game: Sunday, April 19

Series Prediction

Pre-series forecast

TBL 65%

35% MTL

Most likely outcome: TBL in 7 (19% of simulations)

How we calculated this

Elo rating1549 vs 1524 (+25)+1.0% TBL

Goaltending (season starter)GSAx/60: 0.80 vs 0.58+1.3% TBL

Power play (season)PP xGF/GP: 1.75 vs 1.39+2.9% TBL

Penalty kill (season)PK GA/GP: 0.61 vs 0.81 (lower better)+1.2% TBL

Home iceTBL hosts+4.0% TBL

Win probability is computed via Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 runs) over the remaining games, using per-game win probabilities that combine these factors with home-ice advantage.

Game-by-Game Results

Game 1

Sun, Apr 19

TBL —

(H)

MTL —

Upcoming

Game 2

Tue, Apr 21

TBL —

(H)

MTL —

Upcoming

Game 3

Fri, Apr 24

TBL —

(A)

MTL —

Upcoming

Game 4

Sun, Apr 26

TBL —

(A)

MTL —

Upcoming

Game 5

Wed, Apr 29

TBL —

(H)

MTL —

Upcoming

Game 6

Fri, May 1

TBL —

(A)

MTL —

Upcoming

Game 7

Sun, May 3

TBL —

(H)

MTL —

Upcoming

About this First Round Series

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens meet in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round. The Tampa Bay Lightning enter as the higher seed and host Games 1, 2, 5, and 7 (if necessary). First team to 4 wins advances.