McDavid's 10-Game Point Streak and the Oilers' Finishing Surge

Connor McDavid has a point in 10 consecutive games, which is every game he has played this season. Over the streak, which runs from Sept. 29 through Oct. 22, he has 8 goals and 23 assists for 31 points.

That production is real in the sense that it happened. The useful question for the next month is which parts of it hold up. The answer splits cleanly between his goals and his assists.

The Goals Are Ahead of the Chances

McDavid has 8 goals on 3.98 individual expected goals (xG), a gap of 4.02. He has scored on 8 of his 25 shots, a 32% shooting percentage. Last season he shot 15.6%.

Put simply, he is converting at about double his usual rate on a shot volume that isn't unusual. Finishing that far above expected goals almost always cools off, even for the best player in the sport. Ten games is a small sample, and a few bounces account for a lot of that gap.

None of that means McDavid is about to slump. It means his goal pace should come down toward his chances, and his point total will lean more on assists going forward.

The Assists Depend on Everyone Else

That's where the second regression question shows up. The Edmonton Oilers have scored 46 goals on 29.03 expected goals through 10 games, a gap of 16.97. That's the widest gap of any of the 32 teams.

McDavid's 23 assists are tied to how well his teammates finish, and right now they are finishing at an unsustainable clip:

• Leon Draisaitl has 10 goals on 5.15 xG, shooting 27.8% against 18.8% last season. He has scored in five straight games, with 7 goals and 12 points in that stretch.
• Evan Bouchard has 7 goals on just 1.64 xG, shooting 22.6% after 9.5% last season. That is the most extreme gap in Edmonton's group relative to his chances.

When those shooting rates come back down, some of the secondary assists that pad McDavid's line will go with them. The Oilers have also won five straight road games, and a team finishing this far above expectation will see its results tighten too.

Ice Time Is Moving on the Edmonton Blue Line

Two Oilers defensemen show up in the time on ice (TOI) changes. Ryan Shea has averaged 24:36 over his last three games, up from 18:53 last season. Shakir Mukhamadullin has gone the other way, averaging 12:05 over his last three games after 17:08 last season.

Three games is a short window, and a change like this can come from a new pairing, injuries around a player or special-teams usage. Shea is the name to watch. If those minutes stick, his role on this blue line is bigger than it was a year ago.

The Other Side of the Ledger

For contrast, look at Minnesota. Joel Eriksson Ek has 2 goals on 8.23 xG, the largest shortfall in the league's cold-finishing group. He has 37 shots and is shooting 5.4%, down from 9.8% last season. He's getting to the chances; they aren't going in. That kind of gap usually closes.

The Wild as a team have 32 goals on 39.3 xG, a gap of -7.3, even with Kirill Kaprizov scoring 11 goals on 5.32 xG. Strip out Kaprizov's hot hand and the rest of the roster has been snakebitten.

The Fantasy Read

McDavid is a hold in every format, obviously. Just expect fewer goals and a slightly slower point pace once Edmonton's shooters return to normal.

Bouchard is my sell-high candidate here. Seven goals from a defenseman on 1.64 xG is a number that rarely survives a full month, and his value will never be higher than it is right now. Draisaitl is a hold; his shot volume is strong even if 27.8% won't last.

On the buy side, Eriksson Ek is worth a look from frustrated managers. The chances are there.

The Bottom Line

McDavid's streak is unreal but, more likely than not, enjoy it while it lasts.