Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning — February 28, 2026 Game Stats

Game Recap

The Buffalo Sabres defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2 on February 28, 2026. Despite the result, the Tampa Bay Lightning held the edge in expected goals (9.65 to 6.74) at 5-on-5, indicating the Buffalo Sabres received favorable bounces or strong goaltending. The Tampa Bay Lightning created 11 high-danger scoring chances compared to 5 from the Buffalo Sabres at 5-on-5. Josh Norris scored 2 goals. Anthony Cirelli was the most dangerous skater with 1.75 individual expected goals on 1 shots at 5-on-5. The Tampa Bay Lightning outshot the Buffalo Sabres 38-35 in total shots on goal.

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xG Gameflow — cumulative expected goals chart tracking each team's xG as Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning progressed on Feb 28, 2026
Shot heatmap — where shots were taken on the ice, color-coded by scoring probability
Event timeline — every goal, penalty, and key play mapped chronologically
Player matchup grid — head-to-head on-ice performance in Corsi and expected goals
Strength filter — 5v5 by default, with options for power play, penalty kill, and all situations

BUF6 - 2TBL

Feb 28, 2026 · Regular Season

Strength:

Overview

	Period	Corsi			Fenwick			Shots			SC			HDSC			xG			Goals
		F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%
TBL	P1	25	20	55.6	19	16	54.3	14	10	58.3	16	15	51.6	5	4	55.6	4.63	4.39	51.3	0	4	0.0
	P2	20	27	42.6	15	26	36.6	12	20	37.5	14	20	41.2	4	3	57.1	3.57	5.47	39.5	1	1	50.0
	P3	20	8	71.4	17	8	68.0	12	5	70.6	15	5	75.0	2	2	50.0	2.79	1.58	63.8	1	1	50.0
	Total	65	55	54.2	51	50	50.5	38	35	52.1	45	40	52.9	11	9	55.0	10.99	11.43	49.0	2	6	25.0
BUF	P1	20	25	44.4	16	19	45.7	10	14	41.7	15	16	48.4	4	5	44.4	4.39	4.63	48.7	4	0	100.0
	P2	27	20	57.4	26	15	63.4	20	12	62.5	20	14	58.8	3	4	42.9	5.47	3.57	60.5	1	1	50.0
	P3	8	20	28.6	8	17	32.0	5	12	29.4	5	15	25.0	2	2	50.0	1.58	2.79	36.2	1	1	50.0
	Total	55	65	45.8	50	51	49.5	35	38	47.9	40	45	47.1	9	11	45.0	11.43	10.99	51.0	6	2	75.0

Win Probability

TBL Favored

BUF Favored

Goal

Power Play

Gameflow — Cumulative xG

TBL

BUF

Goal

Shot Density Heatmap

BUF Attempts

TBL Attempts

Individual Event Map

Player:

BUF ShootTBL Shoot

Goal

Shot on Net

Missed Shot

Hit

Hit Taken

Player Matchup Grid

This grid shows how every skater on the home team (TBL) performed against every skater on the away team (BUF) when they were on the ice at the same time.

Rows = TBL players, Columns = BUF players. Forwards are listed first, then defensemen.
Green = the TBL player had a favorable matchup (above 50%). Red = unfavorable (below 50%).
Values shown from the home team's perspective. Toggle between CF% (shot attempt share) and xGF% (expected goal share).
Cells with fewer than 3 shared events are grayed out (insufficient sample). Hover over any cell for full details.

Stat:

TBL ↓ / BUF →	McLeod	Thompson	Krebs	Norris	Ostlund	Kozak	Zucker	Malenstyn	Benson	Tuch	Doan	Quinn	Dahlin	Samuelsson	Power	Byram	Kesselring	Metsa
Cirelli	35	22	50	33	50	33	33	33	67	45	25	35	33	50	42	25	80	33
Guentzel	47	27	29	40	50	75	38	75	67	44	50	36	45	60	36	44	50	40
Point	43	—	—	38	67	82	29	63	67	78	57	29	46	68	50	53	0	100
Gourde	20	26	33	20	50	—	0	—	—	36	14	17	10	14	55	25	50	25
Girgensons	0	29	38	0	0	—	0	—	—	36	0	0	13	14	44	14	40	50
James	100	50	67	40	40	86	0	86	71	50	57	0	83	67	50	75	75	50
Goncalves	67	—	100	17	50	60	0	50	60	100	40	50	40	50	56	43	80	—
Hagel	32	10	50	54	67	60	30	60	63	50	50	30	38	50	40	38	78	25
Kucherov	40	40	40	44	71	82	29	63	67	60	63	29	50	71	47	53	0	50
Bjorkstrand	80	33	50	33	33	85	0	80	75	75	50	0	56	69	67	75	75	50
Holmberg	50	35	38	0	50	50	0	50	50	43	25	20	29	25	55	38	50	33
Hedman	46	31	64	50	67	71	33	75	78	60	56	33	59	68	62	50	80	33
Raddysh	33	29	33	45	75	80	14	67	50	36	67	25	54	47	36	42	60	50
Lilleberg	75	45	55	29	33	89	33	75	78	67	44	33	44	67	69	63	60	56
D'Astous	50	44	67	29	33	80	44	60	79	79	43	44	55	70	63	44	70	14
Moser	30	11	14	25	33	75	29	60	50	20	25	29	30	22	30	38	50	67
McDonagh	30	18	29	0	40	0	9	0	0	25	17	20	15	25	27	29	50	0
Cernak	25	20	29	0	50	50	10	50	50	29	25	11	18	29	25	38	0	50