Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning — February 3, 2026 Game Stats

Game Recap

The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in overtime on February 3, 2026. The Tampa Bay Lightning controlled play with 60.8% Corsi and generated 7.86 expected goals compared to 3.81 from the Buffalo Sabres at 5-on-5, suggesting the result was well-earned. The Tampa Bay Lightning created 13 high-danger scoring chances compared to 6 from the Buffalo Sabres at 5-on-5. Mattias Samuelsson scored 2 goals. Peyton Krebs was the most dangerous skater with 1.89 individual expected goals on 1 shots at 5-on-5. The Tampa Bay Lightning outshot the Buffalo Sabres 35-26 in total shots on goal.

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xG Gameflow — cumulative expected goals chart tracking each team's xG as Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning progressed on Feb 3, 2026
Shot heatmap — where shots were taken on the ice, color-coded by scoring probability
Event timeline — every goal, penalty, and key play mapped chronologically
Player matchup grid — head-to-head on-ice performance in Corsi and expected goals
Strength filter — 5v5 by default, with options for power play, penalty kill, and all situations

BUF3 - 4TBL (OT)

Feb 3, 2026 · Regular Season

Strength:

Overview

	Period	Corsi			Fenwick			Shots			SC			HDSC			xG			Goals
		F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%	F	A	%
TBL	P1	21	18	53.8	16	15	51.6	13	9	59.1	14	11	56.0	6	4	60.0	3.58	2.28	61.1	1	1	50.0
	P2	17	12	58.6	15	7	68.2	10	4	71.4	8	6	57.1	4	4	50.0	2.63	1.85	58.7	0	0	—
	P3	18	14	56.3	15	11	57.7	11	8	57.9	13	10	56.5	5	3	62.5	3.56	1.97	64.4	2	2	50.0
	OT	3	5	37.5	3	5	37.5	1	5	16.7	3	4	42.9	1	0	100.0	0.85	0.99	46.0	1	0	100.0
	Total	59	49	54.6	49	38	56.3	35	26	57.4	38	31	55.1	16	11	59.3	10.62	7.09	60.0	4	3	57.1
BUF	P1	18	21	46.2	15	16	48.4	9	13	40.9	11	14	44.0	4	6	40.0	2.28	3.58	38.9	1	1	50.0
	P2	12	17	41.4	7	15	31.8	4	10	28.6	6	8	42.9	4	4	50.0	1.85	2.63	41.3	0	0	—
	P3	14	18	43.8	11	15	42.3	8	11	42.1	10	13	43.5	3	5	37.5	1.97	3.56	35.6	2	2	50.0
	OT	5	3	62.5	5	3	62.5	5	1	83.3	4	3	57.1	0	1	0.0	0.99	0.85	54.0	0	1	0.0
	Total	49	59	45.4	38	49	43.7	26	35	42.6	31	38	44.9	11	16	40.7	7.09	10.62	40.0	3	4	42.9

Win Probability

TBL Favored

BUF Favored

Goal

Power Play

Gameflow — Cumulative xG

TBL

BUF

Goal

Shot Density Heatmap

BUF Attempts

TBL Attempts

Individual Event Map

Player:

BUF ShootTBL Shoot

Shot on Net

Missed Shot

Shot Blocked

Takeaway

Giveaway

Player Matchup Grid

This grid shows how every skater on the home team (TBL) performed against every skater on the away team (BUF) when they were on the ice at the same time.

Rows = TBL players, Columns = BUF players. Forwards are listed first, then defensemen.
Green = the TBL player had a favorable matchup (above 50%). Red = unfavorable (below 50%).
Values shown from the home team's perspective. Toggle between CF% (shot attempt share) and xGF% (expected goal share).
Cells with fewer than 3 shared events are grayed out (insufficient sample). Hover over any cell for full details.

Stat:

TBL ↓ / BUF →	McLeod	Thompson	Krebs	Helenius	Ostlund	Kozak	Zucker	Malenstyn	Quinn	Tuch	Doan	Rosen	Dahlin	Samuelsson	Byram	Power	Bryson	Metsa
Guentzel	71	27	40	67	78	71	52	60	52	50	50	0	43	79	69	63	83	67
Gourde	31	71	53	0	0	75	50	50	33	44	80	0	50	75	27	30	80	83
Girgensons	20	69	53	0	0	50	50	50	33	44	50	0	40	75	22	33	80	83
Goncalves	75	100	100	71	75	67	100	60	50	100	71	50	55	71	75	80	100	100
James	100	57	50	63	75	57	100	60	100	60	60	50	50	50	57	80	75	75
Finley	80	75	100	44	44	0	57	0	57	100	40	0	0	33	62	69	33	50
Douglas	80	—	100	50	44	0	67	0	67	—	50	0	0	33	56	67	33	60
Hagel	71	24	33	67	80	71	50	60	52	50	52	0	44	74	63	60	83	67
Kucherov	77	36	40	71	89	86	72	75	76	53	91	—	58	75	77	67	83	67
Bjorkstrand	100	80	80	50	75	60	100	75	100	91	50	50	60	75	73	85	80	67
Holmberg	29	71	55	0	0	50	67	50	40	59	67	—	44	67	50	50	67	71
Sabourin	80	—	100	44	44	0	67	0	67	—	44	0	0	33	45	55	33	50
Raddysh	69	57	55	64	75	64	58	50	64	67	79	20	59	70	71	60	50	50
Moser	50	27	30	58	69	43	50	33	56	38	69	20	41	56	58	50	40	40
McDonagh	50	56	72	0	0	67	47	67	43	65	29	17	35	82	50	67	91	89
Cernak	56	48	63	0	0	100	52	100	48	53	29	20	25	83	56	67	90	88
Hedman	62	0	20	55	60	33	67	100	62	0	50	—	29	60	50	61	100	75
Carlile	50	0	20	50	50	25	50	50	50	0	42	0	29	40	36	50	50	60