Struggling Canucks Lose 8 Straight: What's Broken, What to Fix

The Vancouver Canucks have lost 8 straight games. Through Oct. 20 they have played 11. That is an early-season sample, but eight in a row is long enough to ask what is actually broken.

The place most people look first, goal scoring, is where the numbers look best. That is the problem.

The Offense Is Running Ahead of Its Chances

Vancouver has scored 33 goals on 25.54 expected goals (xG) in 11 games. That is 7.46 goals above what the quality of its chances would suggest.

Only a few teams in our data are finishing at that kind of clip. Edmonton has 41 goals on 26.39 xG (+14.61) and Colorado has 41 on 31.17 (+9.83). At the other end, Philadelphia has 17 goals on 24.77 xG (-7.77).

Finishing well above expectation usually cools off. Eleven games is a small sample, so it may not fall all the way back. But the goals Vancouver has scored so far are partly borrowed, and a team that is losing while scoring this way has little cushion left.

Fix No. 1: Create Better Chances

The 25.54 xG is the cleaner read on what the Canucks' offense has produced. If the shooting luck evens out, that is the number the goals will move toward.

That means the offense has to generate more and better looks, not count on shooters to keep beating the odds. More shots from the middle of the ice, more chances off the rush and the cycle, and less reliance on one-off finishes. Without that, the scoring will drop and the losing streak will get harder to stop.

Fix No. 2: Look at the Other End of the Ice

When a team is scoring more than its chances justify and still losing eight straight, the trouble points toward the other side of the puck: limiting chances against and getting saves when they come. The offense is not what is sinking this team, so the repair work has to start in its own zone and in net.

Elias Pettersson's Minutes Are Climbing

One deployment change stands out. Defenseman Elias Pettersson has averaged 21:47 of time on ice over his last three games, up from 14:59 last season. That is 6.8 more minutes a night.

Three games is a very small window. If he stays near 22 minutes, it is a real change in how Vancouver uses its blue line. If it drops back, it was a short-term bump. Either way, it is very telling that Coach Manny Malhotra is not getting what he wants out of his Blue Line.

For fantasy managers, a defenseman playing that much has more room to pile up points, shots and blocks. He is worth a look in deeper leagues if he is sitting on the wire.

The Streak in Context

The Canucks are not alone in a slump, but they are the furthest into one. Anaheim and Pittsburgh are each on four-game losing streaks, half of Vancouver's eight.