How Charlie McAvoy's Return Changes the Bruins' Defense

Charlie McAvoy has served his six-game suspension, handed down for a slash penalty in the final game of last season. The Boston Bruins are 4-2-0 without him, and is expected to return to the line-up on the Bruins' roadtrip out West starting with the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday, Oct. 13.

That creates a problem most teams would like to have. Boston has been winning with six defensemen who have settled in, and now its top defenseman needs a spot. One of them sits.

What Boston Did Without Him

The Bruins have 8 points, which puts them sixth in the league by standings position and third in the Atlantic. They are scoring 3.33 goals per game and allowing 2.17. They beat the Rangers 3-0, won in overtime in Winnipeg 4-3, then beat Utah 6-1 and Philadelphia 5-1. The two losses were 1-4 at Minnesota and 1-4 against Ottawa.

The underlying numbers are good but less dramatic than the record. Boston's 5-on-5 expected goals share is 51.9%, a little better than even. Jeremy Swayman has helped a lot: a .932 save percentage and 6.62 goals saved above expected in five starts. LivingHockey's power rankings have the Bruins 15th. Six games is a small sample, so read all of this loosely.

What the Minutes Look Like

McAvoy averaged 24:23 of ice time last season and put up 61 points (11 goals, 50 assists) in 69 games. No one else on the roster played that much. Hampus Lindholm was next at 21:37 and Nikita Zadorov at 20:53.

In his absence, others have played more. Connor Clifton is averaging 20:38 this season after 16:46 with Pittsburgh last year. Mason Lohrei is at 19:27 after averaging 16:54 last season. Those minutes go back to McAvoy, so the players who absorbed them will likely see their roles shrink.

Who Can Come Out

Five defensemen have dressed in all six games: Hampus Lindholm, Will Borgen, Zadorov, Clifton and Lohrei. The sixth spot has rotated. Jonathan Aspirot played the first three games and Frederic Brunet played the last three. Boston went 2-1 in each stretch. Aspirot is already the extra defenseman, so the real decision is which of the six from the Philadelphia game gives up his spot.

Option One: Brunet Sits

This is the simplest swap. Brunet has played three games, averaging 18:37 with one assist and a 50.7% expected goals share. The Bruins scored six against Utah and five against Philadelphia with him in the lineup. He is only a rookie and has a lot of opportunities in front of him, so he is the least established of the six. Against that, nothing in his numbers is a problem: 4 goals for and 1 against at 5-on-5 is a good start. Sitting him is a depth decision more than a punishment.

Option Two: Clifton Sits

This has the strongest case by the numbers. Clifton has the lowest 5-on-5 expected goals share of the regulars at 46.8%, with 5 goals for and 4 against. His workload this year is well above last season's. The risk is that he has played all six games, so removing him breaks up a group that has been together. Clifton is also the veteran among the options making him an unlikely option but still among consideration based on the small sample size of available data. He would not be on my bingo card.

Option Three: Someone Else

The case is thin for the others. Zadorov (51.0%, 5 goals for and 4 against, 20:30) is the same kind of regular as Clifton but with a longer track record, at 20:53 per game last season. Lohrei is at 49.2% but has 7 goals for and 2 against and four points. Hampus Lindholm (59.6%) and Borgen (56.3%) have the best expected goals shares of the group, and Borgen has 8 goals for against 2. Aspirot's own numbers (44.9%, 1 goal for and 2 against, no points) make him an unlikely return.

Most Likely

My read is that Brunet or Aspirot sits. Brunet has the shortest tenure, it keeps the five-man group intact, and his play gives Boston no reason to hurry him out of the organization's plans. Clifton is the very unlikely alternative. If his minutes fall back toward last season's level and his shot-quality numbers stay below the others, he becomes the more defensible choice. However, despite an extremely well-earned spot on the roster last season, Aspirot is another option.

The Bottom Line

McAvoy's return makes Boston deeper, and the six-game stretch without him went well enough that nobody needs to be rushed. The wins came with strong goaltending and a modest 5-on-5 edge, so the extra minutes McAvoy takes back should help the defense. The lineup question comes down to Brunet, Aspirot or Clifton, and Brunet is the likeliest one to sit. Regardless, the Bruins are extremely lucky to be in this situation - especially when injuries come down the pike.